1.0.7 Crafting: Amulet Roll Probabilities

Re-posted from Reddit, and note that my values are different than in the original post, so check them over again. Overall, I give a big thumbs up to amulet crafting!

The basic TL;DR is:

Tries needed to craft:

• 3 valuable stats: 25
• Trifecta: 833
• Really good Trifecta: 6667
• 3 valuable stats with "top half" rolls (in the upper half of their range): 197 -- projected cost of this craft: 39.4 million
• 4 valuable stats: 359
• 4 valuable stats with top half rolls: 5751 -- projected cost: 1.51 billion
• 5 valuable stats: 14 out of 1 million

Ok folks, here it is. For those of you that have been following these posts over the last week or two, I've implemented my theory about how affix rolls work and written a program which simulates items being rolled according to these rules. This is much faster and less prone to error than doing it by hand, and--as long as the sample size is large enough--it should give pretty good approximations.

Earlier today the devs actually responded to one of my questions (Mandlebarb#1598)--the first one under the "Crafting" section. Though they were thorough and explanatory in their response, they did not offer any hard numbers or additional insight into how random affixes get applied to items. So, time for me to step in!

Here are examples of previous work so that anyone new can follow the process:

• How affixes get rolled: http://www.reddit.com/r/Diablo/comments/17s0fc/affix_rolls_explained_with_very_large/
• Examples of multiple affix legendaries being rolled and the unid values being calcualted: http://dd.reddit.com/r/Diablo/comments/17zf3m/affix_rolls_explained_v4_unid_value_of_zunis_pox/

Now I've applied these principles to crafting in 1.0.7. I simulated 10,000,000 crafted amulets and used the results to approximate the probability of getting certain valuable combinations of affixes. It is, as always, important to note the following:

• This is only an approximation of how rolls work, with no official knowledge obtained from Blizzard or any other inside source. I may be wrong, but I have done testing which indicates that these numbers are pretty accurate.
• Some crafted items in 1.0.7 have the chance to be standalone BiS, meaning that their ceiling is higher than anything you can find from farming. This alone will make them pretty appealing to high level players.
• Time actually becomes a pretty big issue now. It takes a really long time to craft enough amulets to expect elite rolls. That being said, it would take a really really long time to expect to farm these same elite items.
• The whole right-hand side with the projected costs and rolls needed to hit are for DPS stats and AR. Thereare other valuable stats that aren't included (Life %, Vit, LoH, and Regen and Armor to a lesser degree), which means that the chance of getting a good amulet isn't quite as bad as I calculated. However, most people are looking for beefy DPS stats out of their ammies, so that's what I focused on.
• Remember that you need to add 200-230 of a primary stat to those rolls! That makes them much more valuable than they seem when you first look at the list.

Without further ado, here's the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArooAQ_ASbpjdHRpWnowSTNNcm41ZFVsS09ZUkpwc2c&output=html