1.0.7 Crafted Affix Level Roll Probabilities: Preliminary Data

An earlier post described some intriguing information that Chazhang had come across while putting together data on both crafted and farmed items: that the ilvl dictated the probability of an affix roll landing within a certain affix level (regardless of what mlvl monster it dropped from!). In order to test this theory on the new 1.0.7 ilvl 63 crafted gear, I've started tabulating rolls that can be distinguished as coming from a particular affix level (double-stat rolls, for example, cannot always be pinned down since the different affix levels overlap quite a bit--they were consequently left out). Luckily, most rolls have totally unique, non-overlapping affix levels.

The preliminary data strongly supports Chazhang's findings. Here's a sample of the data:

Affix level 63 is consistently rolling well above what we'd expect if the rolls were distributed evenly across affix level, rolling between 29% and 41% of the time for the four affixes listed in this small chart.

What does it mean? It means that getting top-tier rolls on the new crafted items is much easier than getting them from farming! Sure, playing at MP > 0 gets you access to affix level 63 and all of your drops, but the ilvl still affects the probability of hitting those affix levels.

It also makes crafting a good bit more valuable of an investment, just as we suspected when looking over Chazhang's original data. When crafting bracers, for example, you may have expected to hit a "good" All Resist roll about 28.5% of the time, or 2 of the 7 possible affix level rolls. Turns out, you should actually expect that roll more like 46% of the time!